Race to WTC Final: every BGT scenario explained

Just over a month ago, it looked like we were on course to have an India-Australia World Test Championship (WTC) final for the second cycle running. 

The expectation was that at least India would certainly make it to the final since they had three ‘winnable’ games against New Zealand at home. 

Well, a month later, the tables have turned COMPLETELY! 

India are no longer favorites. In fact, scratch that; they are no longer even the third favourite to make it to the final, with both New Zealand and South Africa having a far more straightforward path. 

You’ve probably heard this already, but for India to have a strong chance of making it to the final, they’ll have to win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) in Australia at least 4-1. 

Yes, there’s a scenario in which they can win the BGT 4-1 and still not qualify, as all of New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka can finish with a higher PCT (points percentage) if they win each of their remaining games. Only one of South Africa or Sri Lanka can reach maximum PCT - since they face each other - but it will most likely be curtains for India if New Zealand and one South Africa / Sri Lanka win each of their remaining Tests.

So at this point, we’re almost in a situation where only one of India and Australia can realistically make it to the final. Which is why in this article, we’ll be looking at the scenarios involving these two teams. 

But before that, here is the maximum PCT that each team can reach. 

Maximum PCT each team can reach

Australia - 76.31% (7 matches remaining, 5 at home vs IND and 2 away vs SL)

South Africa - 69.44% (4 matches remaining, 2 at home vs SL and 2 at home vs PAK)

India - 69.29% (5 matches remaining, all 5 away vs AUS)

Sri Lanka - 69.23% (4 matches remaining, 2 away vs SA and 2 at home vs AUS)

New Zealand - 64.28% (3 matches remaining, all 3 at home vs ENG)

Here’s what India and Australia’s PCT will look like, based on different BGT and AUS-SL results

> If IND win BGT 3-2 and AUS beat SL 2-0, then 

IND PCT = 58.77%,  AUS PCT = 60.52%

> If IND win BGT 3-2 and AUS draw 1-1 vs SL, then

IND PCT = 58.77%,  AUS PCT = 55.26% 

> If IND win BGT 3-1 and AUS beat SL 2-0, then

IND PCT = 60.52%, AUS PCT = 57.01%

> If IND win BGT 4-1 and AUS beat SL 2-0, then

IND PCT = 64.04%,  AUS PCT = 55.26%

> If IND win BGT 4-1 and AUS draw 1-1 vs SL, then

IND PCT = 64.04%, AUS PCT = 50.00%

> If IND win BGT 3-0 and AUS beat SL 2-0, then 

IND PCT = 62.28%, AUS PCT = 53.50% 

> If IND win BGT 5-0, then

IND PCT = 69.29% (in this scenario, Australia's PCT can’t go higher than 50% even if they whitewash SL)

Note: India will have to either win at least three BGT Tests or win two and draw one Test in order to keep their PCT over 55%.

What’s interesting from the scenarios above is that Australia can still finish above India in the points table even if they lose the BGT 3-2. That’s a big advantage for the Kangaroos, granted they will still have to whitewash Sri Lanka in that case. Which will by no means be easy with the emergence of Kamindu Mendis and Prabath Jayasuriya. 

Mind you, Australia could only draw 1-1 the last time they visited Sri Lanka, which was in 2022. 

Now, we’ve seen the maximum PCT for each contender, but how much PCT can the other sides get to if they lose some of their remaining Tests?

Maximum PCT other contenders can reach if they lose one of their remaining Test

South Africa - 61.11%

Sri Lanka - 61.53%

New Zealand - 57.14%

Maximum PCT other contenders can reach if they lose two of their remaining Tests

South Africa - 52.77%

Sri Lanka - 53.84%

New Zealand - 50.00%

Considering all this, you can say it will be in the best interests of both India and Australia for:

> England to beat New Zealand at least 2-1

> Sri Lanka and South Africa to end 1-1

> Pakistan to either draw 1-1 vs South Africa or beat South Africa 2-0

If the aforementioned things happen, then both India and Australia will still play the WTC Final unless the BGT turns out to be a very one-sided affair (with a 4-1 or 5-0 scoreline, regardless of the team).

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